Donald Trump’s election has given a quick boost to stocks, with the Dow Jones industrial average touching all-time highs. Since markets closed Tuesday, the Dow and the S&P 500 are up about 3 percent — and that’s after coming back from the massive Tuesday night drop. Some market observers expect that boom to continue through Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
Going back to the 1952 election, the median return for the S&P 500 is 3.7 percent between election and inauguration. But in the 50 trading days right after, the market has actually averaged a loss. Even more so, when you consider the first 100 or 150 trading days after the inauguration, there is zero correlation to that November-to-January rise: Literally almost exactly 0.00.
The table above shows exactly what happened in each of the past 16 presidential elections. Notice the tendency to rise before inauguration, but fall afterward, once things settled back to normal.
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