On Tuesday, we will see the one and only vice presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) will engage Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH). It likely will be the last direct interaction between the campaigns, as an additional presidential debate seems highly unlikely.
Over the course of history, vice presidential interactions don’t tend to make much of a difference. The first vice presidential debate took place in 1976, when Jimmy Carter’s running mate, Walter Mondale, squared off against Bob Dole, who ran with President Gerald Ford. It likely did not move the needle either way.
In 1988, Lloyd Bentsen got a famous zinger in against Dan Quayle: “You’re no Jack Kennedy.” Quayle then got elected with George H.W. Bush in a landslide.
Then-Vice President Joe Biden likely did some good for Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign when he aggressively jeered at Mitt Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan. But those moments hardly determined the election.
Still, we should take the time to watch this debate. First, the 2024 election seems to be a very close one. While the Walz-Vance matchup probably won’t move a lot of votes, even shifting a few could matter this time. Can either candidate energize their base or reassure fence-sitters?
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