Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win November’s presidential election for the first time since August 7, according to the latest model from polling analytics website FiveThirtyEight.
The most recent FiveThirtyEight update published on Friday gave the Republican a 51 percent chance of victory on November 5 against 49 percent for Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. FiveThirtyEight said it ran 1,000 simulations of its election model, producing 510 wins for Trump, 486 for Harris, and four with no winner.
Recent polling suggests the presidential election remains closely fought, with an analysis of recent polling published on Friday by FiveThirtyEight giving Harris a 2.1 percent lead in the popular vote. However, due to the Electoral College system, the vice president could win the popular vote but lose overall, as Hillary Clinton did against Trump in 2016.
An analysis of betting odds from major bookmakers, calculated on Friday by data aggregator RealClearPolitics, found Trump’s average odds of victory were 58.5 percent, against 40.4 percent for Harris.
Read more at Newsweek.com
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