Russia is making “incremental progress” in Ukraine “with the potential for tactical breakthroughs along the front lines in areas such as Donetsk and Kharkiv,” Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, told Congress on Thursday, and that has Russian President Vladimir Putin thinking “domestic and the international trends are in his favor.”
Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee on worldwide threats facing the United States, Haines said Putin has shown no indication he is willing to make any significant concessions and in fact is intent on using increasingly punishing strikes, in particular against Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, “to impress on Ukraine that continuing to fight will only increase the damage to Ukraine” while “offering no plausible path to victory.”
Thanks to China’s provision of dual-use components to Russia’s defense industry, Putin has been able to ramp up his domestic ammunition and missile production capacity dramatically, while the U.S. and European allies have failed to keep Ukraine armed.
“He likely views his position based on Russia’s economic trajectory, rearmament efforts, and his political staying power as advantageous compared with the challenges facing the Ukrainians,” Haines said. All of which strongly suggests “the war is unlikely to end anytime soon.”
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